Survey shows 43% of U.S. CEOs plan to cut junior and internship positions, while 30% are shifting hiring focus toward experienced older workers.
调查显示，43%的美国CEO计划削减初级岗位和实习岗位，而30%将招聘重点转向经验丰富的年长员工。
（参考信源：Gizmodo 2026-05-17）A new survey says CEOs are looking to slash junior roles in the next two years and focus hiring on mid-level positions.
一项新的调查显示，首席执行官们计划在未来两年内大幅削减初级职位，并将招聘重点放在中级岗位上。
Job prospects for early-career workers took a turn for the worse last year.
去年，职业生涯初期工作者的就业前景出现了恶化。
In the first quarter of the year, the job market for 22-to-27-year-olds “deteriorated noticeably,” according to a New York Fed report. Later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted that AI might be partly to blame. Companies that would have ordinarily hired recent graduates are now increasingly trying to have AI assistants automate that work, Powell explained. By the end of the year, the job market for these young workers was at its harshest since the worst days of the pandemic.
纽约联邦储备银行的一份报告显示，今年第一季度，22至27岁人群的就业市场”明显恶化”。随后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔承认，人工智能可能负有一定责任。鲍威尔解释道，那些原本会招聘应届毕业生的公司，如今正越来越多地尝试用人工智能助手来自动化这类工作。到今年年底，这些年轻工人的就业市场已处于自疫情最严重时期以来最严峻的状态。
Now, a global survey of CEOs by consulting firm Oliver Wyman indicates that things could get even worse over the next two years.
如今，咨询公司奥纬咨询的一项全球 CEO 调查显示，未来两年情况可能会变得更糟。
According to the survey, the share of CEOs saying that they were looking to reduce junior roles over the next year or two doubled to 43% from 17% just last year. Only 17% of CEOs said they are shifting hiring to focus on more junior positions.
调查显示，表示计划在未来一两年内减少初级岗位的 CEO 比例较去年翻倍，从17%升至43%。仅有17%的 CEO 表示会将招聘重点转向更多初级职位。
Instead of young workers, executives are increasingly focusing on hiring older workers. Roughly 30% of respondents said they are shifting hiring to more mid-level roles, up from only 10% last year.
与年轻员工不同，高管们正越来越多地关注招聘年长员工。大约 30% 的受访者表示，他们正在将招聘重点转向更多中层职位，这一比例较去年的仅 10% 有所上升。
The change is AI-driven, the report concludes.
报告总结，这一变革是由人工智能驱动的。
“Notably, the CEOs with the longest planning horizons are the most likely to plan headcount reductions,” the report said. “That suggests they expect a structurally leaner organization not as a cost measure but as the destination — the endpoint of an AI-augmented operating model that requires fewer people, deployed differently.”
报告指出：“值得注意的是，规划周期最长的 CEO 最有可能计划裁员。这表明，他们预期构建一个结构更精简的组织并非出于成本考量，而是将其视为目标——即一种需要更少人力、以不同方式部署的AI增强运营模式的最终形态。”
AI was a top-three priority for most CEOs, and more than 90% said they are deploying AI in their companies, though 67% are still at the planning or pilot stages.
人工智能是大多数首席执行官的前三大优先事项之一，超过90%的受访者表示正在公司内部部署人工智能，尽管其中 67% 仍处于规划或试点阶段。
Artificial intelligence in its current state is best at automating tasks that an early-career worker could be expected to perform at a company, making this demographic particularly vulnerable to AI-driven cost-cutting initiatives.
在当前阶段，人工智能最擅长自动化公司中初级员工能够完成的任务，这使得这一群体特别容易受到人工智能驱动的成本削减举措的影响。
Despite the widely held belief among top-level executives that AI will be so transformative that a lot of white-collar work can be automated away in the near future, the majority don’t actually see a substantial return on their AI investments.
尽管高层管理者普遍认为人工智能将带来巨大变革，以至于在不久的将来大量白领工作可以实现自动化，但大多数人实际上并未看到其人工智能投资带来实质性回报。
More than half of respondents said it was still too early to assess whether this AI deployment is actually returning the promised productivity gains.
超过半数的受访者表示，现在评估这次 AI 部署是否真的带来了承诺的生产力提升还为时过早。
Only 27% of CEOs said the return on AI investment had actually met or exceeded expectations, down from 38% just a year ago, and nearly a quarter said they had seen absolutely no impact on revenue. This is “not a crisis of confidence,” the report suggests, but “a recognition that redesigning work at scale is slower and more difficult than early enthusiasm suggested.”
仅有 27% 的 CEO 表示人工智能投资回报实际达到或超出预期，低于一年前的38%，近四分之一的人表示其收入完全未受影响。报告指出，这 “并非信心危机”，而是 “人们认识到，大规模工作重塑的进程比早期热情所预示的更缓慢、更艰难”。
Interestingly enough, the handful of executives who lead companies that are actually seeing a return on investment from AI reported a relatively higher rate of shift towards junior workers than those who are not seeing returns, even though the majority still preferred mid-level employees over juniors.
有趣的是，那些领导着公司并真正从人工智能中获得投资回报的少数高管，与那些没有看到回报的高管相比，报告了向初级员工转移的相对较高比例，尽管大多数人仍然更倾向于中级员工而非初级员工。
“A contrarian subset of the most advanced AI adopters see the technology increasing the value of entry-level talent rather than replacing it,” the report says.
报告指出：“一部分持相反意见的、采用最先进人工智能技术的用户认为，这项科技将提升入门级人才的价值，而非取代他们。”
Though mid-level employees seem better off than younger workers in this new equation, the overarching trend is still a shift away from hiring. The survey showed that 74% of CEOs are either freezing or reducing headcount, up from 67% last year. The most aggressive cuts are taking place in the tech, media and telecommunications sectors.
尽管在这个新格局中，中层员工似乎比年轻员工处境更好，但总体趋势仍然是减少招聘。调查显示，74%的 CEO 正在冻结或削减员工人数，高于去年的 67%。最激进的裁员正发生在科技、媒体和电信行业。
These AI-driven headcount reduction initiatives could prove to be more risky in the long term, though.
这些由人工智能驱动的人员裁减举措从长远来看可能风险更高。
“Headcount reduction that outpaces meaningful AI deployment can leave organizations exposed, and overreliance on systems that are still maturing introduces its own vulnerabilities,” the report says.
报告指出：“裁员速度超过有意义的人工智能部署，可能会使组织面临风险，而过度依赖尚未成熟的系统也会带来自身的脆弱性。”
One particularly tricky aspect is the trend seen with younger workers. Less hiring of early-career workers means that these AI-exposed industries are giving fewer opportunities for on-the-job training and career growth to younger workers. That’s potentially catastrophic not only for these 20-somethings but also for the future of the workforce, which, according to this survey, is going to be dominated by mid-level employees. As companies are shifting away from giving opportunities to junior employees to cut costs, they are simultaneously jeopardizing their talent pipeline.
一个特别棘手的方面是年轻工作者所呈现的趋势。对职业生涯早期工作者招聘的减少，意味着这些受人工智能影响的行业为年轻工作者提供的在职培训和职业发展机会更少。这不仅对这些20多岁的年轻人来说可能是灾难性的，对整个劳动力的未来也是如此——根据这项调查，未来的劳动力市场将主要由中级员工主导。随着企业为削减成本而减少给予初级员工机会，它们同时也在损害自己的人才输送管道。